When I owned Women’s Sports & Fitness, one of the things that we noticed in some conversations with our readers was that they often found themselves being asked about products by their peers. On average, each of our readers was asked for help buying a product by 12 of their peers per year. This finding became core to our advertising sales strategy. At the time, our competitors had circulations of five or six times that of Women’s Sport & Fitness. We grew our advertising substantially by helping our advertisers recognize that our readers were more important to reach than our competitors’ readers, because they influenced so many others.
The reality was that our competitors’ readers were seeking out our readers to help them make purchasing decisions. These readers, who were not as passionate about sports, were listening to their more experienced peers. Our advertisers found that it was more important – and a lot cheaper – to engage in a dialogue with the readers of Women’s Sport & Fitness than to advertise with our competitors. It seems so logical to skip the [trend] translators [they're only 13.5% of any market population] and focus on the middle of the [innovation] diffusion curve, where the biggest number of customers resides, but a successful dialogue doesn’t happen that way.
The reality is that, if you don’t connect with the trend translators, the rest of the market won’t take you seriously. They will look first to their respected peers to validate your product. Why is this? Well, most people further to the right [i.e. early majority, etc.] of the translators don't think about your product and the problems it solves very often. They have bigger things to think about. They probably won't even take the time to listen to you. However, they will listen to their peers. Recently, my wife and I adopted our sons from Russia. Waking up one morning with two eight-month-old boys was an overwhelming experience. Neither Bridget nor I had the luxury of taking the time to read parenting magazines and seek out information. It was much easier - and faster - to ask trusted friends and family members for advice. [...]
Despite the attention that popular books [i.e. Crossing the Chasm, The Tipping Point] have brought to [Everett] Roger's ideas, many companies have shied away from engaging translators in a conversation due to their relatively small numbers. Springing from the general corporate belief in the illusion of control, the idea of statistically verifiable sample sizes is seen as a cornerstone of any conversation with customers. The anthropologist Dr. A. K. Romney built a mathematical model, the Cultural Consensus Theory, which supports the notion that, chosen well, small sample sizes of opinion leaders – as few as eight people – can be scientifically valid for conveying what the rest of the community thinks. Typically, these opinion leaders in the social network can see further ahead, helping you become more predictive in your strategic thinking. - Beyond the Brand, by John Winsor (highly recommended)
Trendsetters (2.5% of any market population) are willing to be first on the block with each and every new idea whereas trend translators (13.5%) adopt new ideas early but carefully. Again, they "aren’t the first to jump on a trend, but they are inquisitive about ways to improve what they do. They are usually good communicators, and others in the market tend to solicit advice from them. Translators achieve the capability of sharing common language within a large group of peers… They also seem to focus more on enhancing their experience than on being the first to accomplish something..."
As translators, they are opinion leaders and are always a little slower actually to decide about the acceptance of an idea or product than trendsetters, because they want to make a decision that is good - good meaning right, efficient, etc. The diligence expressed by these individuals in their decision-making process is an important part of their psychological makeup. It is important to them that their peers see them as trustworthy and thoughtful, yet also progressive and forward thinking. - Beyond the Brand, by John Winsor
All this information fits quite nicely into my Blogs as Truth-Telling Networks post, and lest you think blogs are the sole means to reach these trend translators, I share this information in the context of listening to the trend translators no matter where they may hang out - be it online on the blogosphere, or the streets, the football games, the mall, the church, the PTA meetings, the boardrooms, the climbing gym, the bus stop, the cafe and the country club. Sometimes you really have to log off and go meet them in the context of their world.
And I share this in spirit of reminding ourselves that perhaps sheer raw numbers and A-List mass popularity is not necessarily the end-all-and-be-all of any business blogging initiative.
A good listener is not only popular everywhere, but after a while he gets to know something. - Wilson Mizner
You blogged... "small sample sizes of opinion leaders – as few as eight people – can be scientifically valid for conveying what the rest of the community thinks."
Yep look at this... most of the network within 2 steps of the key opinion leaders.
-- http://www.orgnet.com/KOL.html
Posted by: Valdis | Nov 25, 2004 at 02:07 PM